The 2024 nomination contests have largely been a yawn with Donald Trump and Joe Biden wrapping up their party’s nominations in short order. But there are some things we can learn about these elections that help us understand voting and perhaps provide information about the general election.
These elections have been fairly typical in terms of voting patterns. Turnout has been low, especially among party-run caucuses. As an incumbent president, Biden did not face significant competition. Voter interest is attracted to interesting and competitive races, and thus comparatively more voters participated in the Republican contests where Trump faced more opposition, even if not enough to overcome his incumbent-like advantage as a former president. As competition waned overall, turnout has been lower compared to previous election cycles, especially 2016 or 2008 when neither party had an incumbent president running.
To reveal interesting voting behavior, we must look under the hood, particularly at how people vote, where we can observe effects of voting laws and varied candidate preferences among voting methods.
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