North Carolina Forecast Outcome

North Carolina early voting has neared its end, with only a few mail ballots left to be cast. So, like mostly-concluded Georgia, I can now make a forecast for North Carolina’s election outcome based on the early vote.

The good news for Donald Trump is he appears poised to win North Carolina based on the early voting. In 2020, NC registered Democrats had a 5.6 advantage in early voting (both mail and in-person early) at this time. In 2016, registered Democrats had a 9.8 point lead. Now, in 2024, it is registered Republicans who have a 0.9 point lead. If early voting is a measure of relative enthusiasm of the parties, Trump appears to have wind in his sails.

Polling shows a tighter North Carolina race than what the early vote implies, and Trump is making several North Carolina campaign stops in the waning days of the election, so the public polling and Trump’s campaign do not feel as confident as the early voting statistics imply. When there are conflicting signals this is a moment to critically evaluate these data.