More Biden/Harris Supporters Voted on Election Day in 2024 than 2020

The Shift to Election Day Among Trump Supporters Was Less Pronounced

An expected dynamic of the early vote in 2024 compared to 2020 was the there would be fewer mail ballot voters as people no longer employed mail balloting as a social distancing measure during the pandemic.

What couldn’t be known until after Election Day was how many of these mail ballot voters — who were overwhelmingly Democrats — would shift to in-person early voting or Election Day voting.

We won’t know the full extend of the shifts in voting method until states release voter file data in the weeks and months following certification of the election. We can get a first look at what these data will likely tell us in four states that post their 2024 and 2020 statewide election results by voting method in a consistent manner — Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, and Rhode Island. More states provide similar data in their precinct results or through reports by county election officials, but these are either not reported yet or are time-consuming to collect and reserved for the future. I expect these states’ current election results reports are close to what will be certified, so any remaining mail or provisional ballots will not greatly change inferences.