The 2018 midterm election had the highest turnout rate since 1914. Just four years earlier, the 2014 turnout rate was the lowest since 1944.
The 2020 presidential election had the highest turnout rate since 1900.
What happened between 2014 and 2020 was Trump’s presidency. Love him or hate him, he drives engagement like no other modern politician.
And thus it was yet again with the 2024 South Carolina primaries.
Because of various quirks with earlier contests, South Carolina held the first contest where both parties held contests where delegates to their national conventions were at stake. (Democrats did not sanction New Hampshire’s primary; Iowa Democrats will hold their caucus on March 5; and Nevada Republicans held a caucus to award their delegates, bypassing the state’s primary.)
South Carolina thus serves as a first litmus test for voter engagement. The state holds an open primary, meaning that the primaries are open to all registered voters as there is no party registration. South Carolina allows the parties to choose when they hold their primaries, which Democrats did on February 3. Anyone who participated in the Democratic primary could not vote in the Republican primary, held on February 24.
South Carolina’s Democratic primary turnout was perhaps what one might expect with an incumbent president. Joe Biden won over 96% of the 131,302 votes. When Barack Obama ran for reelection in 2012, South Carolina’s election board did not even report results for the Democratic primary, so we do not really have a good comparison to infer the meaning of this level of engagement.
South Carolina’s Republican primary turnout was through the roof, with 755,800 voters. In the 2012 Republican primary, 603,770 voters participated. That’s a 25% increase, outpacing the 19% increase in South Carolina’s voting-eligible population between 2012 and 2024.
Many have opined about the meaning of Donald Trump’s 20 point margin of victory, where he received just shy of 60% of the vote to Haley, who received just shy of 40%. I want to focus on the turnout. What is clear to me is that Trump continues to drive engagement — just like he did when he was president during the 2018 midterm election and when he was up for reelection in 2020.
If we factor in the 6% excess turnout over South Carolina’s population increase to the 2012 election’s 58.6% turnout rate, the forecast 2024 general election national turnout rate is projected to be 62.1%. Setting aside the historic 2020 election, that would top 2008’s 61.6% turnout rate. The next highest turnout rate would be 1968’s 62.5%.
A turnout rate of 62% — give or take some error from this crude projection — makes sense to me. Starting in 2008, turnout has been hovering around 60% as it did during the 1950’s and 1960’s. If — knock on wood — there is no pandemic or similar major issue driving the nation’s discourse in November 2024, Trump’s presence on the general election ballot should continue to stimulate voter engagement to the higher end of the recent turnout range.
Michael, As Always - Thanks for your writing! 2 comments on Turnout - 1.) The 40% for Haley was 10 ppts smaller than the Polls. (A pretty big miss for the polls) 2.) 60% of Haley voters in exit interviews said they wouldn't vote for Trump. Those voters may not show up at the polls, vote down ballot and not for the top of the ticket, or some for Biden. There is a negative pull from Trump that motivates people who are NOT voting for him. And that will matter in the General Election.