California Early Voting
High turnout, Democratic shift but smaller than elsewhere
California is holding a special election for a referendum to conduct a mid-decade redistricting in response to redistricting taking place in Texas, North Carolina, and elsewhere, Proposition 50. Also on ballots are are local elections.
I’ve long advocated for redistricting reform and I support federal law to mandate bipartisan or non-partisan reform nationwide, with explicit fairness standards. Reform efforts have been successful, with even Republican support in states like Florida, Missouri, and Utah. However, it is unwise for Democratic states to disarm while large Republican states like Texas and North Carolina aggressively gerrymander. So, I disagree with my co-star Arnold Schwarzenegger (yes, we were both in a gerrymandering documentary) and I support Proposition 50.
Courtesy of California consulting firm Political Data that maintains a daily ballot tracker, I can produce a same-day analysis of California early voting activity. You can sign up to receive their updates here. Unlike my other analyses here and here, since this is not my work I will not paywall this post.
Early Voting for the California ballot measure is running at 88.6% of the 2024 presidential election, which outpaces early voting in any other state I’ve analyzed so far, and is quite remarkable for an election where a ballot measure is the only statewide election on the ballot. This voter engagement is reminiscent of high turnout for abortion ballot measures in the wake of the Dobbs decision. Clearly, voters are aware of Proposition 50 and its consequences for partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Like elsewhere, there is a shift towards registered Democrats, but it is the smallest observed in any state so far. Compared to the same day prior to the 2024 presidential election, registered Democrats have increased their share by 2.8 points. Unlike the tendencies observed in other early voting states with party registration (save New Mexico), this shift is not coming from unaffiliated voters, who have decreased their share of the electorate by only 0.3 points. The decline is mostly among registered Republicans, who have decreased by 2.5 points.
These shifts are not due to overall party registration changes in California, they are despite it. Since the November 2024 election (comparing the 60-day close of registration reports before an election), statewide Democratic registration has decreased 1.1 percentage points, while Republicans have increased 0.5 points and unaffiliated and minor party registrations have increased 0.7 points.
That unaffiliated voters would have higher participation levels than other states makes sense in that turnout declines tend to concentrate more among unaffiliated voters, who tend not to follow politics as closely as partisans. Also, unlike other states, California conducts vote-by-mail elections, which tend to increase turnout.
It is difficult to know with certainty what the early voting activity means exactly for Prop 50. While the partisan implications are clear, gerrymandering is among the few political arenas despised by majorities of both political parties (it gives me some hope for our county that Republicans support democratic norms). Voters are notoriously negative on ballot measures.
That said, polling indicates Prop 50 will pass with the required majority, with 56% saying they support it in a Public Institute of California (PPIC) poll, and 60% in a according to a survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies poll. Given the increased early voting activity among Democrats, as seen elsewhere, the California early voting data appears to provide confirming evidence for these polls.