About that Iowa Entrance Poll Showing 31% of Caucus Goers Think Trump Is Not Fit for Office if Convicted of a Crime
The winner of the Iowa caucuses was never really in doubt. As reported by the Iowa Republican Party Donald Trump won 51% of the vote easily defeating Ron DeSantis who won 21% of the vote.
Pundits thus turned their attention to the Iowa caucus entrance polls to understand attendees’ motivations. The entrance polls are run by Edison Media Research on behalf of a consortium of media organizations. (I work with Edison Media Research managing their early vote and turnout estimates.) Here’s CNN’s table of the results, which is in an easily digestible format.
Two questions drew attention, in particular.
When asked if they thought Biden’s 2020 election win was legitimate, 66% said it wasn’t, 29% said it was, and the remainder didn’t answer or didn’t know.
When asked if they would vote for Trump even if he was convicted of a crime, 65% said they would, 31% said that they wouldn’t, and the remainder didn’t answer or didn’t know.
On the latter question, some pundits expressed the opinion these statistics could portend trouble for Trump if he is indeed convicted of one of the many felonies he’s been indicted for.
To be fair, these pundits are skeptical that all these Republicans would indeed abandon Trump if a hypothetical become a reality. But I think there is solid evidence in the entrance the 31% is too high of an estimate.
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