2024 Early Vote Forecast

I’ve written in-depth posts on Georgia and North Carolina, two of the battleground states that are “easier” to forecast off the early vote than others because in these two states only a small number of outstanding mail ballots have yet to be added to the totals. The remainder of the battleground states are more challenging for various reasons. I’ll cover these here.

Generally — as I suspected from the beginning of this election cycle — I do not think there is enough information to say with certainty who will win individual states or the Electoral College because the election appears to be close.